De The Futurist. Muy poco políticamente correcto este muchacho:
Why is Bush Becoming Soft?
One of our fears has appeared to come true - the tradition of a second-term President to move to the 'middle'. When Bill Clinton moved to the middle in his second term, it was an improvement, and he passed a tax cut on capital gains in 1997. However, Bush moving to the middle has been the opposite of the majority of the country had hoped for, and is a contributing factor to his approval rating being much lower than in 2003 and 2004.
He has not taken the same resolute position with Iran that he took with Afghanistan and Iraq, despite Iran's provocative actions of meddling with the US in Iraq, and support of Hezbollah against Israel. Many Americans recognize the danger that Iran's nuclear weapons program poses to many democratic countries in the world, and are dismayed at Bush's passivity. This, despite the fact that we have Iran in a vulnerable position, effectively fighting a two-front war, with the added distraction of US and NATO troops present in neighboring Afghanistan.
This does not mean I am advocating a full-scale war with Iran, but it is important to note that their bargaining position is much weaker than ours is (despite our ongoing campaign in Iraq). For all the media hype of Iran being a powerful nation having 3 times Iraq's population, note that during the Iran-Iraq War, Iran was unable to overcome a stalemate with Iraq even after 8 years of fighting from 1980-88. A conventional war against Iran (not regime change) would be no less one-sided than Gulf War I.
Acá lo que tu siempre comentas, chavalte: damned if they do, damned if they don't! Anyway, yo no entiendo de esto, pero tampoco creo que sea cuenstión de softies, sino de cálculo de probabilidades: ¿le respaldaría el congreso en una declaración de guerra (convencional o de cualquier tipo) con Irán? ¿Tiene ahora mismo EEUU bandwidth para desplegar una operación en Iran como la que desplegó en Gulf War I? "Físicamente" sí, creo yo, pero estratégicamente (dinero, opinión pública, efectos a medio-largo plazo)... no sé, mientras esté abierto el frente de Irak creo que Irán va a exprimir la situación al máximo porque debe de calcular que EEUU no "puede permitirse" abrir otro frente de esa magnitud.
ReplyDelete¿Soy una ilusa por creer esto?
Hace rato que vengo diciendo lo mismo, lo de EEUU es una "no win situation". Creo que Bush no tiene resto político para hacer frente a Irán. Quedará para el próximo presidente. Sólo espero que no sea demasiado tarde.
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