Orson Scott Card, el autor de ciencia ficción (¿leyeron Ender’s Game?), sobre por qué caen las civilizaciones. Don Orson sostiene que no debemos extrapolar al presente situaciones del pasado (el Imperio Romano cayó, por lo tanto también caerán los EEUU), pero si tratar de encontrar principios generales.
Me pareció muy interesante lo que dice sobre el ejército romano. ¿Les hace acordar a algo?:
What people overlooked was that everything depended on the Roman Army.
…
So when the Roman Army got caught up in civil wars ("If that legion can make their general emperor, we can make our general emperor!") so that it was distracted and weakened, the emperors began the horribly self-destructive policy of buying off the bad guys on their borders.
It seemed like a good idea at the time, of course. You give the barbarians a lot of money and they go away. It saves lives.
Except that they run out of the money and now they know how to get more. If you crush the barbarian army in battle, they think twice before coming back. If you pay them for showing up and threatening you, and you don't kill any of them, then coming back and threatening you again will be very popular with the barbarian footsoldiers. You'll see them a lot more.
But money isn't infinite -- the barbarian invaders shrink the tax base as they interfere with trade, both directly ("Let's loot this city so they'll know we're serious!") and indirectly ("The barbarians are coming! Let's leave our city and run away to someplace safe!").
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