May 4, 2007

La Argentina de Kirchner


Me encantaría creer que lo que describe este artículo es la Argentina de Kirchner pero me temo que se trata de la Argentina de los argentinos:

The Argentine president has accomplished the impossible: he has created a cult of personality with no personality at all.

Over the last five years, Argentina has experienced a significant economic recovery, partly due to a drastic devaluation of the currency by two-thirds, but also to the government's decision to cease paying its foreign debt of some $140 billion, the biggest sovereign default in history. (It has since renegotiated most, but not all, of its foreign obligations.) The currency devaluation suddenly made Argentina's exports highly competitive in the world market and created an entirely new tourist industry. But by great good fortune it also coincided with a sudden upsurge in Chinese demand for soy, a product Argentina, with its fertile soil and favorable climate, is well situated to produce. At the same time, Venezuela's Ch?vez stepped forward to buy up $5 billion in Argentine debt paper, releasing the country from obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Unemployment has subsequently dropped from 25 to 9 percent, and the country now boasts $35 billion in reserves, the largest amount in its entire history.

Even so, recovery is not complete, and some indicators give reason for concern. Partly because of its refusal to settle with its remaining foreign creditors, the country now accounts for a mere 3 percent of new foreign investment in Latin America, compared to its normal 15 percent share. As it is, capital stocks are deteriorating; the country is basically surviving on resources put in place during the previous decade. Price controls have brought about a return of inflation, though exactly by how much no one can say for sure, since the director of Argentina's National Statistical Institute was forced out for producing figures not to the liking of the administration. The government may be purposely undervaluing the peso to promote exports and erect a wall against cheap imports, as well as to subsidize the flourishing tourist industry. Some estimates place as much as 40 percent of the labor force in the black economy. The general public mood is one of satisfaction with the present--certainly compared to the recent past--but also mild apprehension, as nobody is certain what the future will bring. Any change in world interest rates, grain prices, or the political situation in Venezuela, now Argentina's number one ally and financial supporter, could push the numbers in the wrong direction.

2 comments:

  1. Venezuela creo que se va a pique en poco tiempo.
    Pienso que el pronóstico se cumplirá.
    La descripción de Argentina es casi perfecta.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Luis decile a esos tipos que pisen el barro como dice Miceli. Están tirando cualquiera...a parte ya les hicimos caso a sus recetas una vez...y...

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