CBP explica por qué no hay motivo para preocuparse en EEUU por un dólar más fuerte.
Habla de EEUU pero aplica perfectamente a Argentina, donde tanta gente sigue convencida de que el camino al desarrollo pasa por las devaluaciones constantes:
An ever-weaker currency does not lead to a stronger economy by way of boosting exports. Big downward moves in a currency can eventually lead to rising exports (the J-curve effect), but a depreciating currency also makes imports more expensive. Spending more on imports can offset whatever benefits there may be from rising exports.
An ever-weaker currency inevitably leads to rising inflation. The basic definition of inflation is a decline in the value of a nation's unit of account. Rising inflation throughout the economy can more than offset whatever gains there may be in the export sector.
An ever-weaker currency discourages investment, and without investment it is very difficult for living standards to rise. Who wants to invest in a country whose currency is falling? A depreciating currency can wipe out investment gains.
Me sorprende que no se plantee asi: si vos cobras x de una unidad y la devaluan, lo que hacen es bajar tu precio sin preguntarte. Las devaluaciones son "ganar competitividad" abaratando el producto, no tiene nada de magico. Abaratar el producto hace que los insumos comparbles para fabricarlo sean cada vez peores. Si lo seguis haciendo indefinidamente terminas vendiendo basura gratis, pero nadie la compra porque efectivamente no vale nada.
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