El nuevo imperialista latinoamericano

Ramiro me manda el artículo de la sección "The Americas" de hoy del WSJ. No estoy tan seguro de que funcione lo que propone O'Grady, pero muy interesante de todos modos:

Latin America's New Imperialist
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY

The U.S. decision on Monday to ban arms sales to Venezuela symbolizes the growing concern around the region about the saber-rattling President Hugo Chávez.

But it's not likely to have much of an effect. First, because Venezuela can probably get much of what it wants in the weapons department via its friends in Russia. And second, because Mr. Chávez's "Bolivarian Revolution" -- which promises to unite the entire region under a neo-Marxist flag -- is being carried out through less traditional means than modern brute force. So far he has picked off Bolivia and serious concerns are now emerging about his financial backing of Sandinista National Liberation Front candidate Daniel Ortega ahead of Nicaragua's November presidential elections.

The trouble is that Mr. Chávez is awash in cash and that is what he is using, both overtly and surreptitiously, to extend his influence in the poorest countries of the region. A better way to clip the Venezuelan despot's wings would be for the Federal Reserve to use the tools at its disposal -- including open market operations -- to sop up the excess of dollar liquidity that is sloshing around the globe. Oil, like gold, has spiked in price under this inflationary bias, creating windfall profits for the world's worst type-A tyrants.

Of course, political uncertainty has added to petroleum price hikes. But an explicit Fed objective of dealing with inflationary expectations by, for instance, bringing gold back to $400 an ounce, is guaranteed to rein in oil prices. Writing in the May 22 issue of Forbes magazine, Steve Forbes estimates that "At least $20 of the price of a barrel of oil today is pure inflation and inflation-induced speculation."

Slashing the inflation premium would be great for Americans at the pump and next winter. But by putting an end to too many dollars chasing world petroleum output, the U.S. would also cut its worst enemies down to size. Note that Iran's mullahs haven't been this aggressive since the 1970s, when the U.S. last went on an inflationary binge. In this hemisphere, as the weapons ban indicates, cash-rich Venezuela has become equally menacing.

Venezuelan democrats will tell you that there is not much hope for a change in government without an oil-price retreat. Until that happens, Mr. Chávez will be too powerful. That's bad news for 26 million Venezuelans who are experiencing sky-rocketing crime rates and declining living standards under Chavismo.

But the risks of a sustained period of extraordinary wealth in the hands of Mr. Chávez go well beyond the damage he is doing to his own country or even his military buildup. Equally worrying is that in his role as the region's Daddy Warbucks, Mr. Chávez is also using his wealth to extend his revolutionary tentacles in politics. Gustavo Coronel, a former member of the board of directors of the state-owned oil company PdVSA, estimates that Mr. Chávez has already officially spent $17 billion internationally to advance his agenda. Given Venezuela's lack of transparency and massive corruption, it's hard to dismiss suspicions that the real number is much higher.

Exhibit A is Bolivia, where Venezuela's president has actively coached his disciples and where well-financed and orchestrated street violence brought down two elected governments in recent years and produced the Evo Morales presidency. Bolivia has now become a virtual Venezuelan colony flush with Cuban agents.

A number of governments in the hemisphere have expressed alarm about Mr. Chávez's extracurricular activities around the region. Mexico is worried about the growth of Chávez-funded Bolivarian Circles – groups that preach and enforce Fidel Castro's view of the world – springing up at its universities and trying to influence its July presidential
elections.

This sort of political manipulation is why Mexican President Vicente Fox expelled Venezuela's ambassador last year. Presidential candidate Felipe Calderon has been even more explicit, stating that "evidence has emerged" of Venezuelan meddling. "This should be investigated and the full weight of the law should be brought to bear to prevent Hugo Chávez from actively interfering and attempting to sway the outcome of the vote in Mexico."

Brazil, headed by a left-winger once viewed as a Chávez ally, is now publicly critical of Venezuelan interference. Last week Brazil's foreign minister warned Mr. Chávez to back off in Bolivia, noting that "when certain threats [from Bolivia to Brazil] were being transmitted through the press, that happened parallel with a large presence of PdVSA personnel" in Bolivia. In Peru, where a runoff between Chávez-wannabe Ollanta Humala and former president Alan Garcia is scheduled for June, there are also strong suspicions of Venezuelan interference. President Alejandro Toledo has cautioned Mr. Chávez to stay out of Peruvian affairs.

Latin America's biggest players might be able to fend off Venezuela. But Central America is far more vulnerable. Mr. Chávez has made no secret of his support for Nicaragua's Cold War relic Daniel Ortega, still doing Castro's will but now with the Venezuelan's money.

As he has done all over Latin America and the Caribbean -- and in Massachusetts -- Mr. Chávez is selling discounted energy to Sandinista-controlled municipalities, including the capital of Managua. Mr. Ortega claims that Venezuela promised to use some of the gasoline income it gets in the transaction to capitalize a development bank for Nicaragua. This week the Nicaraguan daily La Prensa reported that Mr. Chávez has sent a gift of 10,000 tons of fertilizer to the Sandinista mayors and is planning to send another 10,000. The mayors are also controlling the distribution of gifts from Cuba – obviously funded by Venezuela since Cuba has no money -- which include a multi-million dollar literacy program and thousands of free television sets. Venezuela has a program to ferry Nicaraguans to Caracas for free eye surgery and recently hosted 80 pro-Ortega mayors for a retreat in the capital.

This is not passive generosity. It's classic directed political support for the hard left. One way to compete against it would be to spend as hard as Mr. Chávez. A better way would be to bring oil prices back to earth by draining dollar liquidity. The beauty of decisive action on the monetary front is that it would weaken the Venezuelan tyrant while at the same time making U.S. consumers (and ultimately Venezuelan ones, too) better off.