Aug 2, 2007

Ignorancia económica y voto racional

John Stossel sobre por qué tanta gente vota políticos y políticas tan nefastas:

I'm not alone in this concern. An economist at George Mason University, Bryan Caplan, says few people think about their vote or even see any benefit in doing so. His new book, "The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies" , argues that most voters cast their ballot on the basis of irrational biases about economic matters. That's why so many candidates hostile to free markets, profits, free world trade and immigration get elected. People tend to acquire their wrong opinions about economic policy packaged in worldviews they inherited while growing up. They never test their views against the evidence because that would be unsettling. No one likes having his worldview challenged. So people vote for candidates who make them feel good. They vote irrationally.

Caplan stresses that most voters see no reason to do otherwise because they don't bear the consequences of their choices. This irrationality does not carry over into their personal lives because there they bear the brunt of their own decisions. But when irrationality is free, notes Caplan, people will indulge their biases.

Caplan divides them into three categories: antimarket bias, antiforeign bias, make-work bias and pessimistic bias. Antimarket bias describes people feeling that trade and profit are zero-sum games, that one person's gain is another person's loss. They haven't learned that free exchange is win-win and that in a free market, profit comes from cost-cutting innovation. Antiforeign bias, perhaps a vestige of primitive man, consists of distrusting "them" even though our prosperity increases according to how global the division of labor is. Foreigners don't want to invade us; they want to sell us useful things. Make-work bias is the belief that what makes us rich is jobs, rather than goods, and so anything that eliminates jobs is bad. If that were really true, we could prosper by outlawing all inventions created after 1920. Think of all the jobs that would create! Finally, pessimistic bias is the view that any economic problem is proof of general decline. Lots of people actually think we're poorer than our grandparents were!

2 comments:

  1. De todas maneras, igual hay racionalidad en la decisión de voto de las personas. Otra cosa es que esa racionalidad se dé de bruces con el sentido común. Pero hasta el que vota a cambio de un bolsón de comida razona que eso es lo que a él le conviene, antes que pensar en el bien común o en promesas vagas de campaña.

    No me refiero entonces, claro está, a la sabiduría de la decisión sino a la racionalidad de ella. Aunque la racionalidad no sea el único componente dela decisión, que también se basa en carismas y códigos inconscientes que en la Argentina solo el peronismo ha logrado captar en las clases bajas. Sin embargo, el peronismo también perdió elecciones, es decir, que hubo aspectos de la decisión que estaban fuera de esos códigos.

    Lo que quiero decir, en conclusión, es que las razones de un voto son muchas, y no se pueden caracterizar como irracionales solo porque no tengan en cuenta ciertas verdades evidentes. A nadie le gusta tener un gobernador que roba, pero antes privilegia tener un plan social en su casa, y esa es una decisión racional.

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  2. Bambi, yo creo que la gente actúa racionalmente según los incentivos.

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