¿Será tan así?

¿Será reelegido Obama?

Alfred Cuzán sostiene que la historia demuestra que el público generalmente rechaza a presidentes responsables de una tasa de crecimiento del gasto, medido como porcentaje del producto bruto, igual o mayor a la del presidente anterior:

Barring no surprises, such as a war, Mr. Obama's reelection will largely depend on two things. First, whether the economy makes a strong comeback during the second half of this term, as it did in Reagan's case. If it does, his reelection is practically assured. Second, if the economy is still in recession or undergoing a weak recovery, it will depend on whether spending growth has moderated relative to the previous term (as it did in Roosevelt's first term).

Tal vez China, Corea del Norte o Irán le den la guerra que necesita para ser reelegido.