Oct 20, 2010

Los que se tienen que preocupar son los chinos, no los norteamericanos

CBP, de la sección “se cae el imperio”:

Remember the book "Rising Sun ," by Michael Crichton? His thesis was that the U.S. was monumentally stupid to allow the Japanese to buy so much of our real estate and so much of our industry. As a resident of Los Angeles, I recall that Japan's purchases of a number of downtown office towers occurred almost precisely at the peak of real estate prices in the early 1990s. Prices then proceeded to drop by one-third, at the same time the dollar fell from 130 yen to the low 80s—real estate bought in the early 1990s lost over one-half its value when translated back into yen. Japan's savers lost a fortune, thanks to the Bank of Japan's extremely tight monetary policy. And as it turns out, Japan never acquired the nefarious control over U.S. industry that Crichton warned about in his book. On the contrary, we took them to the cleaners. We bought their cheap cars and cheap electronics; they invested their export earnings in the U.S., only to see a huge portion of those savings wiped out by the weak dollar/strong yen.

And so it is with the Chinese. They sell us mountains of cheap goods, then turn around and invest most of the proceeds (equivalent to our trade deficit with China) in U.S. Treasury securities. We get the goods, and we get to keep the money. Then we devalue the dollar, and they lose on their investment. Why we would want them to stop doing this is beyond me, though if I were a Chinese citizen, I would be furious with my government for directing such massive quantities of my country's export earnings to Treasuries.

1 comment:

  1. En CNN ayer decía un economista que la suba de tasas en China fue para solucionar la burbuja inmobiliaria. Y resaltaba que al no haber Congreso ni democracia las decisiones se tomaban más rápido que en USA... flor de hdp.

    La izquierda quiere controlar todo, y tarde o temprano llegan a la conclusión que el congreso y las instituciones son un estorbo.

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