Canada politics: Conservatives celebrate

From The Economist Intelligence Unit (enviado por Marta):

The Conservative Party’s victory in Canada’s January 23rd general elections marks a momentous change in a country that has been governed by Liberals for the last 13 years. But the turnaround in the Conservatives’ fortunes had less to do with the appeal of its leader and likely next prime minister, Stephen Harper, than with the public’s anger at the Liberal Party, which has been mired for two years in corruption probes. It is unclear, therefore, how much of a shift to the right the election really presages. On the economic front, policy is unlikely to change significantly. Ottawa-Washington relations should grower closer, however.

Besides the scandals damaging the Liberals, Mr Harper was helped by the fact that he had moderated his message in recent months. The Conservatives also ran a disciplined and effective campaign, focusing on policy pronouncements and largely side-stepping certain social issues that have hurt them in the past. Rather than address ideological differences with the Liberals on issues such as gay marriage, Mr Harper’s campaign platform emphasised cutting taxes, reducing crime and tackling official misconduct. Specifically, he promised to cut the 7% tax on goods and services (GST) to 5%, and to eliminate a capital gains tax on the sale of assets, including second homes and stockmarket investments. He also pledged to reduce hospital wait times and replace a child-care programme with outright grants to families.

How much Mr Harper can actually accomplish is uncertain, as his government will be in a minority position. Having won just 36% of the popular vote, the Conservatives will have 124 seats in the House of Commons against 103 seats for the Liberals. This is short of the 155 seats needed to form a majority. The new government will therefore need to form an alliance with one of the other opposition parties in order to legislate. The separatist Bloc Québécois (BQ) is estimated to have won 51 seats and the New Democratic Party (NDP) 29 seats. There will be one independent in Parliament.

By moving to the centre of the political spectrum, Mr Harper may have also created new challenges for himself within his own party. Apart from having to negotiate with the opposition, he will have to control the more right-wing and socially conservative members of the Conservative Party, many of whom will clamour for more controls on abortion and a repeal of a recent law authorising homosexual marriages.