Jan 5, 2007

El único recurso que nos debería preocupar si se estaría agotando, es la inventiva humana. La siempre creciente capacidad creativa del hombre garantiza que el mañana siempre va a ser mejor que el hoy.
Me encantó este artículo del WSJ de ayer, de Brian Wesbury, un optimista incurable.

Demand does not create wealth. Consumers were not marching in the streets 30 years ago complaining about the fact that there was no way to share their daily activities and innermost thoughts with thousands of their closest friends. People were not begging for personal computers, email, broadband, the Web or blogs. Entrepreneurs, futurists, scientists and the very early adopters birthed this technology: Today's average consumer was either clueless or still in diapers.

Even though some of this technology existed in the 1970s, the economic environment of those times was not conducive to its rapid development or deployment. Tax rates were high and regulation was stifling. This held back innovation, creativity and productivity. To offset this malaise, many macroeconomists counted on the Fed to hold interest rates low by printing more money, which only stoked inflation. The resulting stagflation created a lousy environment for new inventions.

In the early 1980s, tax rates were cut, government interference in the economy was reduced, and the Fed followed a tight money policy. As stagflation was cured, entrepreneurs got to work. In garages, basements and cinderblock buildings, today's technology promptly came to life even before its full usefulness was understood. It took more than a decade for the Internet and email to become real consumer products. It was the supply of this technology that fueled its growth, not the demand for it.

If France had chosen to cut tax rates, regulation and the size of its government in the early 1980s while the U.S. continued on its path towards a social welfare state, it would be the French who would be complaining about excess corporate profits and the income gap. Americans, on the other hand, would fret about a 10% unemployment rate and march in the streets demanding job guarantees and shorter workweeks.

1 comment:

  1. Muy interesante, y relacionado con este otro post de ayer. Creo que es fundamental que los formadores de opinión y el público en general entiendan esos conceptos y procesos.

    Por lo general, me temo que mucha gente tiene la tendencia a creer que se trata de una ecuación de suma cero. En las inmortales palabras de un ex compañero de trabajo, tipo grande y muy preparado, para que alguien gane alguien tiene que perder. Es muy triste, y peligroso, pero me temo que es real.

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